I am writing this on Friday (24 June), the day that the result of the referendum to stay or leave the European Union (EU) was announced. I assume everyone reading this knows the result, the citizens of the (Dis)united Kingdom have voted by 51.9% to 48.1% to leave the EU. To say that I am shocked and disappointed would be an understatement. And, I am also ashamed. I am ashamed that my country, Wales, voted by 52.5% to leave. That is a higher percentage than the DUK average. I am ashamed to be Welsh at this moment.
Scotland, not surprisingly, voted to stay, in fact 62% of those voting in Scotland want to stay in the EU. Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, has already said that a fresh referendum for Scottish indpendence is “highly likely”, as she feels it is totally wrong for Scotland to be forced out of the EU against its will. And, I agree with her. I only wish I could say the same for Wales, but we actually voted to leave.
As anyone who reads my blog (all two of you) will know, I am a massive rugby fan. Tomorrow, Wales will take on New Zealand in the 3rd and final test of their summer tour. We have not beaten New Zealand since 1953. Also, later tomorrow, our football team take on Northern Ireland in the 2016 Euros; if we win we will get to the Quarter Finals.
I would love us to beat NZ for the first time in 63 years, and for us to advance to the Quarter Finals of the 2016 Euros. But, I would willingly give up all of this to have had Wales mirror Scotland and have voted to stay in the EU. I have always thought of my small country as outward looking and inclusive, but it seems I was wrong. A majority want to turn their backs on our European neighbours. I would bet my mortgage that Wales will regret this decision in 5-10 years’ time and wish they had voted differently.
By 2020, I predict, Scotland will be back in the EU as an independent country; whilst Wales becomes an increasingly economically poor western part of the rump which is left of the (Dis)united Kingdom. With Scotland independent, the London government will be perpetually a Conservative one, and do the Welsh people honestly think people like Boris Johnson (the most likely person to become Britain’s next Prime Minster) or Michael Gove give a damn about the poverty blighting the South Wales valleys? The poverty that Maggie Thatcher set in motion when she dismantled the coal industry in the 1980s? They probably don’t even know where Wales is.
I have just seen this on Twitter, and so thought I would add it. Although I’m a little too young to be a baby boomer, my generation voted overwhelmingly to “leave” too. “Sorry” doesn’t seem adequate……
I am sad, I am angry, I am shocked. But, most of all I am ashamed. And envious of Scotland, a beacon of sanity in a sea of madness…….
From a purely Welsh perspective, is this an irreversible decision?
You’ve said “Wales will regret this decision in 5-10 years’ time and wish they had voted differently”. At that time, wouldn’t the sight of an independent Scotland spur nationalistic sentiment? The kind that is fervent enough to push for independence from England.
It may Aswin. But to go from 52.5% voting for Brexit to a majority wanting independence from London is a long road. It’s not going to happen any time soon. Maybe by 2030, if Scotland are independent and back in the EU by 2020?
Scotland does not have the economic resources to be independent. They rely more on money from the UK government (i.e. the English) than they do on the EU. It is up to the Welsh Government to ensure that Wales does not lose out and benefits from the money that will be released as a result of Brexit.
What money released as a result of Brexit? You’ve fallen for that fallacy?
We actually pay over £100million per week into the EU coffers. That will be released. Our politicians have to argue to get some of the other money that is currently dispensed by the EU in the form of grants, funding for projects in Wales that will also be released.
It won’t be released as Britain’s credit rating has already been lowered by Standard & Poors. So extra interest on our debt will eat up far more than £100m. The maths is incredibly simple, on a £1.5trillion debt even a tiny drop in credit rating means the Government pays more to borrow. As we run a budget deficit the so-called £150m “saving” has already disappeared. And, that’s before the economy contracts, and inflation rises (which, with a 8% drop in the value of the £, it will inevitably do).
The economy will recover. One of the reasons it has been badly affected initially because the money markets (whoever they are) thought the vote would be for remain. The ratings agency are predicting a change to the credit rating as far as I can see. One of them changed before the referendum. Any way – I respect your views and I hope you can respect mine. I do not know what will happen but we have to grasp the nettle.
I agree that we have to grasp the nettle. Talk of a second referendum because this one was so close is wishful thinking. It will be interesting to reconvene this discussion in 1,2, 5 and 10 years’ time 😉
Economic modellers predict lower GDP growth outside of the EU than within, and most predict a recession. (The scale of it depends on the exact nature of the UK’s future trading relationship with the EU, which we do not know at present.) The Treasury’s spending plans have been based on the assumption of growth close to the long-term average of about 2.7% per annum. Lower growth, particularly recession, means less tax revenue, which will create an increasing budget deficit. This is on top of the current budget deficit after the 2008-2009 economic crisis. This will mean more cuts to public services.
The scale of this is on a much greater scale than any savings in financial contributions to the EU.
It’s an almighty mess, and a wholly avoidable mess. It’s a disaster.
I too feel great embarrassment that Wales voted to quit the European Union.
Two-thirds of the land area of Wales and two-thirds of its population have received the highest level of European Union regional development grants. The Welsh vote is a rejection of this support. It’s madness, or perhaps the consequence of a population that has a near-zero understanding of public affairs.
This reminds me of the March 1979 referendum in Wales when the country overwhelmingly rejected a democratic devolved assembly in favour of continued direct government from London. Following that, there was no protection from the worst effects of the collapse of the coal, iron, steel and other industries over the following decades.
Harri Pritchard Jones wrote later of the 1979 referendum result,
“When the actual result came, the most memorable quote was by veteran Welsh language journalist John Robert Williams, a former editor of Y Cymro. On radio, he declared, `We (the Welsh nation) got on to the world stage for a brief moment. And what did we do? We filled our pants!'”
(Harri Pritchard Jones, “The Referendum and the Welsh Language Press”, in “The Welsh Veto: the Wales Act 1978 and the Referendum”, eds. D. Foulkes, J. B. Jones, R. A. Wilford, University of Wales Press, Cardiff, 1983, p. 179.)
Indeed. If we had voted for devolution in 1979 we may have been able to lessen some of the devastation wrought on Wales by Thatcherism. We will never know.
But, as you say, for so many of the communities which have been kept afloat by EU money to vote to bite the very hand that feeds them is utter madness. It belies belief, and when they learn that there won’t be £350m a week more for the NHS, or that the DUK has to continue contributing to the EU and accept free movement of people (as Norway does), I suspect that they’ll deeply regret allowing themselves to be hoodwinked by BoJo, Gove and Farage.
Yes, absolutely.
The leader of the Conservatives in the National Assembly argued consistently during the referendum campaign that the UK government could continue funding regional development schemes in Wales using money from the UK’s former subscription to the EU. This was nonsense.
Firstly, the loss of UK tax revenues following the Brexit downturn, or even recession, will be significantly greater than the old EU subscription.
Secondly, funding to the devolved nations in devolved policy areas is determined only by the Barnett formula: if there were to be any net savings (which there will not because of reduced tax), Wales would be given only 5% of them. But Wales has received a large share of the old EU regional development funds, not 5%.
Yet more misinformation. It does make you wonder whether referendums are a good idea, given how gullible people are and how lying politicians and newspapers can con them.
I don’t believe in the referendum as a constitutional device. A referendum is only properly democratic if the electors understand the issues. However, a referendum gives rogues and charlatans to hoodwink the electorate to vote in a particular way. False information and lies can be spread in a referendum campaign in a way that makes the result not properly democratic.
I prefer representative democracies in which the people choose delegates to decide policy. Those representatives then have the time to research and understand issues.
Exactly!